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Forecasting Methods & Scenario Techniques
level of course unit
2. Semester Master: 1st Study cycleLearning outcomes of course unit
The students:
• understand the relevance of scenario techniques in the context of corporate planning in volatile times
• know different methods of scenario techniques and are able to assess their applicability in practice
• are able to apply individual methods of scenario techniques
• know qualitative forecasting methods and are able to apply them practically
• understand the relevance of scenario techniques in the context of corporate planning in volatile times
• know different methods of scenario techniques and are able to assess their applicability in practice
• are able to apply individual methods of scenario techniques
• know qualitative forecasting methods and are able to apply them practically
prerequisites and co-requisites
2. Semester: no information
course contents
Part A - Forecasting Methods:
• Overview of different forecasting methods
• Simple quantitative methods (especially time series analysis and causal methods, e.g. trend extrapolation or linear regression)
• Qualitative methods (e.g. Delphi method)
Part B - Scenario techniques:
• Overview of different scenario techniques
• Application options and examples
• Overview of different forecasting methods
• Simple quantitative methods (especially time series analysis and causal methods, e.g. trend extrapolation or linear regression)
• Qualitative methods (e.g. Delphi method)
Part B - Scenario techniques:
• Overview of different scenario techniques
• Application options and examples
recommended or required reading
Backhaus, Klaus et al. (2011) Multivariate Analysemethoden, Heidelberg
Faschingbauer, M.(2013) Effectuation – Wie erfolgreiche Unternehmer denken, entscheiden und handeln, Stuttgart.
Hassani, B. (2016) Scenario analysis in risk management: Theory and practice in finance, Wiesbaden.
Martelli, A. (2014) Model of scenario building and planning: Facing uncertainty and complexity, London.
Romeike, F.& Spitzner, J. (2013) Von Szenarioanalyse bis Wargaming: Betriebswirtschaftliche Simulationen im Praxiseinsatz, Weinheim.
Tetlock, P. & Gardner, D.(2016) Superforecasting, die Kunst der richtigen Prognose, Frankfurt.
Faschingbauer, M.(2013) Effectuation – Wie erfolgreiche Unternehmer denken, entscheiden und handeln, Stuttgart.
Hassani, B. (2016) Scenario analysis in risk management: Theory and practice in finance, Wiesbaden.
Martelli, A. (2014) Model of scenario building and planning: Facing uncertainty and complexity, London.
Romeike, F.& Spitzner, J. (2013) Von Szenarioanalyse bis Wargaming: Betriebswirtschaftliche Simulationen im Praxiseinsatz, Weinheim.
Tetlock, P. & Gardner, D.(2016) Superforecasting, die Kunst der richtigen Prognose, Frankfurt.
assessment methods and criteria
• Module exam (Data Analytics & Business Modeling, Risk Management & Monitoring, Forecasting Methods & Scenario Techniques, Mergers & Acquisitions)
• Online questions
• Online questions
language of instruction
Germannumber of ECTS credits allocated
2eLearning quota in percent
33course-hours-per-week (chw)
1.5planned learning activities and teaching methods
• Blended Learning
