One year of Trump: Economy marked by uncertainty

On January 28, 2026, Stephan Bruckbauer, Chief Economist at UniCredit Bank Austria, gave a lecture in the ballroom of the University of Applied Sciences Kufstein Tirol on economic developments after a year of Donald Trump's renewed presidency. The lecture evening, sponsored by the Lions Club Kufstein, was moderated by Christoph Hauser, economist and host of the evening, and focused on the effects of political uncertainties on financial markets, commodities, and the global and national economy.

RAW MATERIALS AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC CHANGE

Bruckbauer emphasized that economic uncertainty, particularly in the area of trade policy, had increased significantly as a result of Trump's actions and was now around three times higher than in comparable phases in the past. This development was leading to increased volatility on the financial markets and a more cautious approach to investment on the part of companies and investors.

This uncertainty is particularly evident on the commodity and financial markets. The price of gold has risen significantly in recent months, mainly due to increased demand for safe forms of investment. In addition to the general uncertainty, increasing diversification away from the US market is also playing a key role. Government bonds have also contributed significantly to price developments, after initial impetus came from governments. At the same time, Bruckbauer put media reports into perspective and pointed out that the actual price increases were in some cases lower than publicly perceived.

Another focus was on industrial commodities such as copper, nickel, and steel. These are of great importance both for the defense industry and for new technologies in the so-called New Economy, for example in the field of artificial intelligence. Many commodity prices have now almost returned to their 2019 levels, indicating a gradual recovery in global demand.

Globally, the world economy is back on a moderate growth path, but with significantly less momentum than before the pandemic. Overall, global economic growth is around ten percent below the 2019 level. While the US economy continues to grow despite political uncertainties – driven primarily by investments in artificial intelligence – China is currently benefiting greatly from the global situation and recording an increase in exports of around 50 percent. In Europe, on the other hand, industrial development remains tense, especially in Germany, where industrial production continues to decline.

Bruckbauer painted a cautiously positive picture for Austria overall. As in Germany and the eurozone as a whole, incoming export orders are below the 50 percent mark, which points to a downward trend. Nevertheless, a recession is no longer expected; instead, very slight economic growth is anticipated.

This growth is primarily driven by the public sector and investment. Public spending has a stabilizing effect on the economy and could partially offset short-term weaknesses in other areas. Investment also plays a key role in maintaining economic momentum. In addition, Austria is benefiting from individual sectors that are proving to be comparatively robust. These include, in particular, the pharmaceutical industry, metal producers such as voestalpine, and the production of electric motors. These areas were key drivers of the slight growth at the beginning of the year.

In contrast, however, key Austrian industries remain under pressure. Construction, wood and building materials products showed very weak development. The retail sector is also on a downward trend, which is attributable, among other things, to a high savings rate and cautious consumer spending among the population. Overall, the mood in many trades is subdued, even though the overall economic situation is slowly stabilising.

The presentation was followed by a lively discussion with numerous questions from the audience, reflecting the high level of interest in current economic developments. The evening ended in a relaxed atmosphere with further discussions in the foyer.

In summary, the presentation made it clear that economic development after a year of Donald Trump's renewed presidency is characterized by increased uncertainty, but at the same time by adjustment processes. While global financial and commodity markets are reacting sensitively to political risks and investors are increasingly hedging their bets, the global economy as a whole appears to be stabilizing, albeit at a lower level of growth than before the pandemic.

For Austria, this results in a mixed picture: very moderate growth contrasts with continued subdued sentiment in key sectors. It has become clear that economic stability is currently being driven less by momentum and more by government stimulus, targeted investments, and individual robust industries.

The Management Forum Kufstein event series is an initiative of the International Business Management, Marketing & Communication Management, and Leadership & Business Management degree programs. It focuses on current marketing and business issues and provides insight into strategic and operational management.

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Management Forum Kufstein | Event Series

This article was written by students of the Marketing & Communication Management program as part of a practical project.